Redfin says 14.5% of U.S. homes under contract in September were canceled, the highest share since early 2020, and Florida metros led the list: Jacksonville at 19.9% and Tampa at 18.8%. For Ocala, the lesson is simple. Getting under contract is only halfway; strong terms and early prep keep a deal alive.
This week's data is about deals that fall apart before closing. Redfin's September report, covered by WRE News and World Property Journal, shows buyers backing out at a pace not seen since the first months of the pandemic, and two of the top five metros are a short drive from Marion County.
What happened
Cancellations hit a post-pandemic high. Redfin estimates 14.5% of home purchases under contract in September were canceled, WRE News reported. That is the highest September share in Redfin's data and, outside the first pandemic shutdown, the highest for any month. CNN called it the highest since the pandemic began.
Florida led the list. Among the 50 most populous metros, Jacksonville had the highest cancellation rate at 19.9%, followed by Tampa at 18.8%, Las Vegas at 18.6%, San Antonio at 18.5%, and Phoenix at 18.4%, per World Property Journal. That publication said Florida markets were "particularly exposed." It also reported the time to find a buyer rose 16 days in Tampa and 12 days in Orlando.
Fewer new contracts, too. Pending sales fell 4% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the steepest monthly drop in more than three years, and the lowest level since 2014 outside of April 2020. Closed sales fell 1.6% for the month. Active listings rose 1.2% to the highest level since March 2020.
Prices are flattening, not falling. The national median sale price was $393,895, up 1.3% from a year earlier, the smallest annual gain since February, according to World Property Journal. It also reported 60.5% of September sales closed below the original asking price, and 19.8% of sellers with active listings cut their price.
Rates are the pressure point. Redfin head of economic research Chen Zhao said, "It's not surprising that when rates climb above 7%, fewer people buy homes because fewer people can afford them." The Freddie Mac 30-year average ended September at 7.28%, WRE News noted. On Oct. 21, Fortune reported a 30-year conventional rate of 7.333% from Mortgage Research Center data, with the next Federal Reserve meeting set for Oct. 27-28.
Why deals are falling apart
The reports do not say why each contract was canceled. The usual pressure points are familiar, though: the payment stops working once the final rate or insurance quote arrives, the inspection finds a costly roof or system issue, the appraisal comes in low, or the buyer gets cold feet with more homes on the market. Each one can be planned for before you sign.
What it means for Ocala and Marion County
Ocala is not among the 50 metros Redfin ranked, so there is no published Ocala cancellation rate, and I will not invent one. What the Jacksonville and Tampa numbers do tell us is that Florida buyers right now are sensitive to cost surprises. Insurance quotes, roof age, and HOA documents often surface after the contract is signed, and that is where local deals get tested. For local trends, see my Ocala market report and the Ocala ZIP code guide.
What it means for buyers
- Lock in the real payment before you sign. Get an insurance quote on the specific address and a current loan estimate early. Fortune cited MBA data showing the ARM share of applications at 10.5%, its highest since October 2025, which tells you how many buyers are stretching. Know your number. The mortgage calculator helps you test it.
- Protect yourself with contract terms, not hope. Inspection, financing, and appraisal contingencies exist for a reason. Backing out outside those periods can put your deposit at risk, so ask a real estate attorney what each one protects.
- Use your leverage. With more listings and frequent price cuts, ask for repairs, closing cost credits, or a seller-paid rate buydown when the comps support it.
What it means for sellers
- Accepting an offer is not the finish line. Look at the buyer's pre-approval, down payment, and contingency periods, not just the price. A slightly lower offer with stronger terms can be the better deal.
- Remove surprises before they kill the deal. A pre-listing inspection, a four-point and wind mitigation report, and roof and system records answer the questions that usually come up after the contract.
- Price realistically from the start. Zhao's advice to sellers: "price realistically from the start and lean into any flexibility you can offer; a rate buydown or covering closing costs can go a long way when buyers are stretched thin."
- Keep showing until it closes. Ask about accepting backup offers so a cancellation does not send you back to square one. My Ocala seller page covers prep, and sellocalahome.com has more seller resources.
What it means for investors
- Canceled deals can become opportunities. A home that comes back on the market after a failed contract often has a motivated seller. Find out why it fell through before you offer.
- Underwrite at today's rates and today's insurance. With the 30-year rate above 7%, many rentals only work with more cash down. Do not count on a future refinance to save the numbers.
- Talk with a CPA about the tax side of any purchase or sale before you commit.
What I'd do this week
- Buyers: get an insurance quote and a fresh loan estimate before writing your next offer, not after.
- Buyers under contract: put every contingency deadline on your calendar and confirm them with your agent and attorney.
- Sellers: gather roof, HVAC, and permit records, and order a pre-listing inspection if you have not.
- Investors: set alerts for listings that return to active status and ask why the prior contract ended.
- Everyone: watch the Fed meeting on Oct. 27-28 for what it signals about rates.
Frequently asked questions
Why are so many home sales falling through in 2026?
Redfin estimates 14.5% of homes under contract in September were canceled, the highest share since early 2020. Redfin's Chen Zhao tied the slowdown to mortgage rates above 7%, which strain affordability. Payment changes, inspection findings, and appraisal gaps are common pressure points once a contract is signed.
Which Florida cities have the most canceled home deals?
Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, Jacksonville had the highest cancellation rate in September at 19.9%, and Tampa was second at 18.8%, per Redfin data reported by World Property Journal. Ocala is not one of the 50 metros in that ranking, so there is no published Ocala rate in the report.
Can a buyer back out of a home contract in Florida?
It depends on the contract terms and deadlines. Inspection, financing, and appraisal contingencies can give a buyer a way out within set periods, while backing out outside them can put the deposit at risk. A Florida real estate attorney can review your specific contract.
How can Ocala home sellers keep a deal from falling apart?
Look at the buyer's financing and contingency terms, not just the price. A pre-listing inspection, a wind mitigation report, and roof and system records reduce surprises. Accepting backup offers can also help if the first contract is canceled.
Are home prices dropping because of canceled deals?
Not broadly yet. Redfin's national median sale price was $393,895 in September, up 1.3% from a year earlier, the smallest gain since February. About 60.5% of sales closed below the original asking price, so buyers have more room to negotiate.
What are mortgage rates in Ocala right now?
Rates are national, not set by city. Fortune reported a 30-year conventional rate of 7.333% on Oct. 21 from Mortgage Research Center data, and the Fed meets again Oct. 27-28. A licensed lender can quote your actual rate based on your credit and loan type.
Sources
- WRE News: Pending home sales hit lowest level since 2014 as contract cancellations surge (Oct 12, 2026)
- World Property Journal: U.S. pending home sales hit 12-year low as buyer cancellations reach post-pandemic record (Oct 13, 2026)
- Fortune: Mortgage rates today, Oct. 21, 2026 (Oct 21, 2026)
- RISMedia: Pending sales bottom out as mortgage rates return to 7% range (Oct 15, 2026)
- ABC Columbia (CNN): More homebuying deals fell through last month (Oct 20, 2026)
General information only, not legal, tax, insurance, or lending advice, and no guarantee of any price, value, rate, or outcome. National and metro figures may not reflect conditions in a specific Ocala neighborhood. Consult a licensed lender, a real estate attorney, a CPA, or a licensed insurance agent for your situation.
Cristian Gonzalez, REALTOR, eXp Realty
FL License #3633800 · Ocala, Marion County, Florida · Published October 21, 2026