The Mortgage Bankers Association now forecasts the average 30-year rate at 7.3% for the rest of 2026 and above 7% through the end of 2027. If that holds, waiting for rates to fall well below 7% could mean waiting until 2028. For Ocala buyers, the better move is lowering the rate you get, not waiting for the market to do it.
The mortgage rates we are seeing right now are scary enough, even for October. What the experts expect from now through the end of next year might not be what you want to hear. But the same forecast carries some useful news for anyone buying in Ocala and Marion County, especially if you know which levers to pull.
Earlier this month I covered rates climbing to 7.28% and the Fed signaling another hike. This post is the longer view: where the mortgage industry thinks rates are headed through 2027, how buyers who are still moving forward are adjusting, and the exact questions to bring to a lender.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Not by much, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the national group that represents the mortgage industry. MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni presented the group's latest forecast at its annual convention in Chicago, and HousingWire reported that MBA expects rates to stay above 7% through 2027. His summary of how much relief to expect: "I don't think we're going to come down that far."
Here is what the forecast calls for, as reported by NowBAM and Mortgage Professional:
| Measure | MBA forecast or current level |
|---|---|
| 30-year fixed, Oct. to Dec. 2026 | About 7.3% average |
| 30-year fixed, through 2027 | Above 7% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.1% average this quarter, near 5% through 2027 |
| Fed rate hikes | One in December 2026, one in the first quarter of 2027 |
| ARM share of applications | Almost 10% last month, above 9% through 2027 |
| Freddie Mac 30-year average, Oct. 15 | 7.40%, unchanged for a second week |
That 7.40% Freddie Mac average, reported by Yahoo Finance on October 15, is the highest level in three years.
Why rates are not coming down faster
The main reason is inflation. Both major inflation measures are running around 3.4%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, and Mortgage Professional reported that MBA does not expect inflation to get back to 2% until around 2028, possibly later. Higher energy prices are a big part of the problem, with Brent crude near $100 a barrel this year.
To fight inflation, the Fed raised its key rate in September for the first time since 2023. MBA expects two more quarter-point increases: one in December and one in the first three months of 2027.
Fixed mortgage rates do not follow the Fed directly. They move with the 10-year Treasury yield, the return investors earn on 10-year government bonds, and lenders use it as a guide when they set rates. Mortgage Professional reported the 10-year touched about 5.36% this month, its highest in 24 years. As long as that yield sits near 5%, a 30-year rate in the 7s is the math, not a temporary spike.
How buyers are adjusting to 7% rates
Buyers who are still moving forward are finding ways to lower their own rate. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said more of them are choosing adjustable-rate mortgages or paying points to lower their rate for the life of the loan, per NowBAM. The two work very differently:
- Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM): You get a lower starting rate for a set number of years. After that, your rate can go up or down, so your monthly payment could rise by quite a bit. Earlier this month the gap between a 5/1 ARM and a 30-year fixed was small, so check whether the discount is worth the risk.
- Mortgage points: You pay an upfront fee at closing to lower your rate. The lower rate stays with you for the life of the loan, but you need more cash at closing. How much one point lowers your rate varies by lender and by day.
The right choice depends on how long you plan to stay in the home and how much cash you have for closing. A licensed lender can run the numbers on both for you.
The Ocala advantage most buyers miss: points do not have to come out of your pocket. In Marion County, seller credits and builder incentives are common, and a credit put toward a permanent buydown can lower your payment more than the same dollars taken off the price. Builders in areas like Marion Oaks and the 34473 ZIP code often tie incentives to their preferred lender, so ask exactly what the credit can pay for. See current options on my Ocala new construction page.
What this means if you are waiting to buy in Ocala
If MBA's forecast is right, waiting for rates to fall far below 7% could mean waiting until 2028 or beyond. A few other trends from the forecast can help you plan, per HousingWire and NowBAM:
- Home purchase activity is running about 9% below where it was in January.
- National home price growth has been running around 2% a year. MBA expects it to slow in 2027 and pick up again in 2028.
- MBA expects builders to start fewer new homes over the course of its forecast.
Here is what Ocala buyers are seeing locally right now:
- Prices are flat, not falling fast. The August 2026 median sale price for single-family homes in Marion County was $290,000, down 1.7% from a year earlier, according to the Ocala/Marion County Association of REALTORS. Active inventory was down 14.8%.
- Fewer homes, more price cuts. Realtor.com data published on FRED shows Ocala active listings shrank every month from March through September, while the number of price-reduced listings rose 9.62% in September. I broke that down in my Ocala inventory post.
- Fewer buyers competing. With purchase activity down nationally and local listings shrinking, the homes that are priced right still sell, and the ones that have already been cut are where buyers have room to negotiate on price, repairs, or a rate buydown credit.
Put a number on it. On a $290,000 home with 20% down, a $232,000 loan at 7.40% runs about $1,606 a month in principal and interest. At 6.50%, it is about $1,466. That roughly $140 a month is what you would be waiting for, and a seller-paid buydown can close part of that gap today. Run your own numbers in the Ocala mortgage calculator, then add taxes, insurance, and any HOA.
Questions to ask when you call lenders
Rates and fees vary from one lender to the next, so I encourage every buyer to talk with more than one. Bring these questions to each call:
- How much would it cost to buy points, and how many years would it take for the lower payment to make up for that cost?
- If I go with an ARM, how long does the starting rate last, and how high could my payment go after that?
- What rate and APR can you offer me on a 30-year fixed loan right now?
- What fees are included in your Loan Estimate?
- How long can I lock my rate, and what happens if rates change before closing?
- If a seller or builder gives me a credit, can it be used for a permanent buydown, and what would that do to my payment?
Ask each lender for a Loan Estimate, a standard form that spells out your rate and closing costs. Laying them side by side makes it a lot easier to compare offers. Veterans should also price a VA loan; start with my Ocala VA buyer guide.
If you are not sure which lenders to call first, I have a few names I can share based on my own experience and on feedback from clients who have worked with them. You choose who you work with.
What I'd do this week
- Get at least two written Loan Estimates on the same day, for the same loan, so you are comparing like for like.
- Ask each lender to price a 30-year fixed with and without points, plus one ARM option.
- Pick two or three homes you would actually buy and pull each one's price history. A home that has already been reduced is the best place to ask for a buydown credit.
- Build your budget at today's rate. Do not count on a refinance to fix the payment later.
Based on MBA's forecast, rates above 7% look likely to stick around for at least another year. Getting your loan questions answered early gives you a clearer picture of your budget before you start touring homes.
Frequently asked questions
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Not by much, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Its October 2026 forecast calls for the 30-year fixed to average about 7.3% for the rest of 2026 and stay above 7% through the end of 2027. Forecasts change with inflation and bond yields, so treat it as a planning range, not a promise.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in Ocala?
That depends on your budget and timeline. If MBA is right, rates well below 7% may not return until 2028 or later. Many Ocala buyers are lowering their own rate instead, using points or a seller or builder credit toward a buydown. A licensed lender can compare both paths.
What is the difference between an ARM and buying points?
An adjustable-rate mortgage gives you a lower starting rate for a set number of years, then the rate can rise or fall. Buying points means paying an upfront fee at closing for a lower rate that lasts the life of the loan. Points cost more cash now; an ARM carries future payment risk.
Can a seller pay for my mortgage points in Florida?
Often, yes. Sellers and builders can offer credits that may be applied to closing costs, including points for a rate buydown, within the limits your loan program allows. Your lender sets those limits, and the credit is negotiated in the contract.
What is the current mortgage rate?
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.40% on October 15, 2026, unchanged for a second straight week and the highest in three years, as reported by Yahoo Finance. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, loan type, and lender.
What is the median home price in Marion County?
The August 2026 median sale price for single-family homes in Marion County was $290,000, down 1.7% from a year earlier, according to the Ocala/Marion County Association of REALTORS. Active inventory was down 14.8% over the same period.
Sources
- HousingWire: MBA originations forecast for 2027 and rates (Oct 11, 2026)
- NowBAM: Mortgage rates above 7% through 2027, according to MBA's latest forecast (Oct 13, 2026)
- Mortgage Professional: MBA expects two more Federal Reserve hikes, in December and Q1 2027 (Oct 12, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance: Mortgage rates held steady this week at 7.4% (Oct 15, 2026)
- Ocala/Marion County Association of REALTORS: August 2026 Monthly Stats Report (PDF)
- FRED / Realtor.com: Active Listing Count Month-Over-Month in Ocala, FL (CBSA)
- FRED / Realtor.com: Price Reduced Count Month-Over-Month in Ocala, FL (CBSA)
This article is general information, not legal, tax, or lending advice. Forecasts are not guarantees, and rates change daily. Payment examples are principal and interest only and are for illustration. Talk with a licensed lender about your loan options, and a CPA or attorney about tax or legal questions.
Cristian Gonzalez, REALTOR, eXp Realty
FL License #3633800 · Ocala, Marion County, Florida · Published October 21, 2026