Cotality's November report, released today, shows U.S. single-family home prices up 1.7% from a year ago but down 0.3% from August, the largest monthly drop since 2022. Prices are not crashing, but momentum is fading, and Cotality forecasts annual growth slowing to 0.9%. In Ocala, that favors prepared buyers and realistic sellers.
It is Election Day in Marion County, and most of the attention is on Amendment 3 and the local ballot questions. A data release this morning matters just as much for anyone planning to buy or sell here this winter. Cotality, the property data firm, published its monthly home price report, and it lines up with what contract and rate data have shown for weeks: the market is cooling, slowly and unevenly. Here is what the numbers say and how I would use them in Ocala, Belleview, Dunnellon, Summerfield, and the rest of the county.
What happened
According to Cotality's US home price insights for November 2026, published November 3, single-family home prices rose 1.7% year over year in September and fell 0.3% from August. Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp called it "the largest monthly decline since 2022 and the third consecutive September without growth," noting that prices normally edge up about 0.2% in September. The national median still moved above $400,000.
The gains are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest. Cotality said every state in those regions posted annual price gains, while four Western and two Southern states posted declines. On Florida specifically, the report said that in Florida and Texas, "higher insurance and taxes often push total costs above borrowing limits." That is the same pressure buyers describe to me here: the price is only part of the payment.
Cotality also put a number on the rate effect. When the 30-year fixed rate rose from 6.5% to 7.5%, the monthly payment on a median-priced home jumped $300, pushing the required annual income to $103,000. Its outlook: elevated mortgage rates are expected to limit buying in 2027, while more inventory and greater buyer bargaining power keep price growth subdued.
Two other data points fill in the picture. The National Association of Realtors reported on October 20 that pending home sales, which track signed contracts, fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from a year earlier. In the South, which includes Florida, contracts fell 8.2% for the month and 12.0% for the year. "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates," NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said. On rates, Freddie Mac's weekly average for the 30-year fixed was 7.24% as of October 29, down from 7.32% the week before, with the 15-year at 6.60%, as summarized by The Mortgage Reports.
How to read national data for Ocala
These are national and regional figures. Cotality's report did not single out Ocala or Marion County, so do not assume a local home dropped in value last month. Local prices depend on the property, the price range, and the part of the county. Sold data for your ZIP code is the real test, and my Ocala market report and Ocala ZIP code guide are the place to start comparing. What the national data does tell you is the direction of leverage, and right now it is leaning toward buyers who are ready to act.
What it means for buyers
- You have room to negotiate, so use it on terms, not just price. With contracts down and prices flat to soft, ask about seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown. A lender can show you which saves more on your payment.
- Budget the full payment. Cotality called out insurance and taxes in Florida for a reason. Get an insurance quote early in your search and run principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and any HOA in the Ocala mortgage calculator.
- Do not wait for a crash the data does not show. Prices are still up 1.7% nationally year over year. Softer momentum means better negotiating, not necessarily much lower prices.
What it means for sellers
- Price to today's comparable sales, not last spring's. When the usual September gain turns into a decline, buyers notice. Homes priced above recent sales tend to sit, and price cuts later often cost more than pricing right at launch.
- Make the payment easier, not just the price lower. A credit a buyer can put toward a rate buydown can widen your buyer pool, since every rate move changes who qualifies.
- Prepare for questions. Expect buyers to ask about roof age, insurance costs, and the property tax picture after tonight's vote. Having answers ready keeps deals together. For a pricing review, see my Ocala seller page or sellocalahome.com.
What it means for investors
- Underwrite flat appreciation. With Cotality forecasting annual growth of 0.9%, build your numbers on rent and cash flow, not price gains.
- Stress-test carrying costs. Insurance and taxes are the costs Cotality flagged in Florida. Get real quotes before you write an offer, and ask a CPA how the numbers fit your tax situation.
- Watch the non-homestead cap question tonight. Amendment 3 would reduce the annual assessment limitation on non-homestead property from 10% to 5% for non-school taxes, according to the Pinellas County Property Appraiser's FAQ. Whether it passes affects long-term holding costs on rentals and second homes.
Tonight's vote and your 2027 tax bill
Amendment 3 needs at least 60% of the vote. If it is approved, it would take effect January 1, 2027, and would first show up on the August 2027 TRIM notices and the tax bills delivered in November 2027, per the Pinellas County Property Appraiser. School taxes would continue either way. I covered the details and Marion County estimates in my Amendment 3 guide for Ocala homeowners. Watch the results tonight before you change any plans based on it.
What I'd do this week
- Buyers: get a lender quote at current rates and an insurance quote on a sample home, then set your price range from the full payment.
- Buyers: when you find a home, ask your lender to compare a price reduction against a seller-paid rate buydown.
- Sellers: pull the last 90 days of sold and pending homes near you and price against those, not active listings.
- Sellers: gather roof, insurance, and permit records now so buyers' questions have quick answers.
- Investors: rerun your deals at flat appreciation and current insurance quotes, and check back after the Amendment 3 results.
Frequently asked questions
Are home prices dropping in Ocala?
Cotality's national data shows U.S. prices fell 0.3% from August to September 2026 while still up 1.7% from a year ago. The report did not break out Ocala, so local values depend on your area and price range. Compare recent sold homes in your ZIP code for the clearest answer.
Is now a good time to buy a house in Marion County?
That depends on your finances and how long you plan to stay. The national data points to more negotiating room for buyers, with contracts down and price growth slowing. Talk with a lender about your full payment before deciding.
Will home prices go down in 2027?
No one can promise that. Cotality forecasts annual price growth slowing to 0.9% and expects elevated mortgage rates to limit buying in 2027, with more inventory giving buyers more bargaining power. That points to slow growth, not a sharp drop.
What are mortgage rates right now?
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.24% as of October 29, 2026, down from 7.32% the week before, and the 15-year averaged 6.60%. Your rate depends on credit, down payment, and loan type, so get a quote from a lender.
How much income do you need to buy a median-priced home?
Cotality estimates that when the 30-year rate rose from 6.5% to 7.5%, the payment on a median-priced U.S. home rose $300 a month and the required annual income reached $103,000. Florida buyers also need to budget for insurance and taxes, which Cotality noted can push total costs higher.
Sources
- Cotality: US home price insights, November 2026 (Nov. 3, 2026)
- National Association of Realtors: Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September (Oct. 20, 2026)
- The Mortgage Reports: Mortgage Rates Ease in Freddie Mac's Weekly Average (Nov. 2, 2026)
- Pinellas County Property Appraiser: Proposed 2026 Florida Property Tax Amendment 3 FAQs
This article is general information, not legal, tax, insurance, or lending advice, and no guarantee of any value, rate, or outcome. National data may not reflect any specific property. Talk with a lender, insurance agent, CPA, or real estate attorney about your own situation.
Cristian Gonzalez, REALTOR, eXp Realty
FL License #3633800 · Ocala, Marion County, Florida · Published November 3, 2026