The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% when it announces its decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Markets price roughly a 91% chance of a pause, and a December hike is widely expected. For Ocala buyers, the rate you can lock matters more than the headline decision.
The Fed's policy committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday. After a rate increase in September, this meeting is mostly about what the Fed signals for December. Mortgage rates do not move one for one with the Fed, but the tone of Wednesday's statement can move the bond market, and that is what lenders price off. Here is what is expected, where rates stand this morning, and what I would do whether you are buying, selling, or investing in Marion County.
What is happening this week
The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27 and 28. At its September meeting, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by a quarter point (0.25%) to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, according to Raisin and Fortune.
- A pause is expected: Raisin reports that 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect no change this week, and financial markets show a 90.6% probability of a hold.
- December is the real watch item: All economists in that Reuters poll, and about 73% of market pricing, expect another quarter-point hike in December, which would take the range to a projected 4.00% to 4.25%.
- Why the Fed is torn: The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment edged up to 4.2%, while core inflation is still running above the Fed's 2% target.
Where mortgage rates stand this morning
Fortune, using Mortgage Research Center data, put the average 30-year fixed conforming rate at 7.237% on Oct. 26, down from 7.275% in the prior report and 7.260% a week earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.443%, and the 30-year FHA averaged 6.682%. Fortune estimates that on a $300,000, 30-year loan at 7.237%, you would pay roughly $435,802.06 in interest over the life of the loan.
Demand is soft. Mortgage applications fell 5.3% for the week ending Oct. 16, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data cited by Fortune. Nationally, NAR reported September existing-home sales at a 3.99 million annual pace, a median price of $417,500, and inventory of 1.60 million homes, a 4.8-month supply. In the South, which includes Florida, the median price was $361,000, up just 0.2% from a year earlier. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, "Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home."
What it means for buyers
- Do not wait on Wednesday. A hold is already expected, so the decision itself is unlikely to be a surprise. What can move rates is the Fed's language about December. If you are under contract, talk with your lender before Wednesday about whether to lock or float.
- Shop the payment, not the headline. Rates differ by loan type. FHA and conventional averages were not the same this morning, so ask your lender to quote more than one option. Run your numbers in my mortgage calculator.
- Use the softer market. With more homes for sale and fewer buyers qualifying, there is often more room to ask for repairs or seller credits. My first-time buyer page walks through how that works in Ocala.
What it means for sellers
- Your buyer pool is rate sensitive. Every move in rates changes who qualifies at your price. Expect buyers to ask for credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown, and decide ahead of time what you are willing to offer.
- Price for the market you are in. NAR's Yun said sellers "need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers." A sharp list price usually beats chasing the market down. See my selling page or request a valuation at sellocalahome.com.
- Plan for December. If you plan to list before year end, getting ready now gives you options if the December meeting pushes rates higher.
What it means for investors
- Higher short-term rates hit variable debt first. HELOCs and other variable-rate loans tend to follow the Fed more closely than 30-year mortgages. If a December hike happens, check how your variable debt would reprice. My earlier post on HELOCs and ARMs after the Fed hike covers that in more detail.
- Cash still has leverage. NAR says cash sales were 27% of September transactions, and individual investors and second-home buyers were 20%. In a market with fewer financed buyers, a clean, fast offer stands out.
- Underwrite at today's rates. Run rental numbers at current financing costs, not hoped-for ones. Compare areas with the Ocala ZIP code guide or the 34473 ZIP page for Marion Oaks, and check with a CPA and lender before you commit.
What I'd do this week
- If you are under contract, call your lender before Wednesday and agree on a lock or float plan in writing.
- If you are shopping, get a fresh preapproval and ask for quotes on at least two loan types.
- If you are selling, decide now what credit you would offer a buyer, so you can answer fast when an offer comes in.
- If you hold variable-rate debt, find out exactly when and how it adjusts.
- Read the Fed statement on Wednesday for language about December, then watch how lender rate sheets react on Thursday.
Frequently asked questions
Will the Fed raise rates on October 28, 2026?
A hold is the strong favorite. Raisin reports markets price roughly a 91% chance of no change, and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect the range to stay at 3.75% to 4.00%. The bigger expectation is a quarter-point hike in December.
Do mortgage rates go up when the Fed raises rates?
Not directly. The Fed sets a short-term overnight rate, while 30-year mortgage rates follow longer-term bond markets and inflation expectations. They often move in the same direction over time, but mortgage rates can rise or fall before the Fed acts.
What are mortgage rates today in Ocala?
There is no single Ocala rate. Fortune, citing Mortgage Research Center data, put the national 30-year fixed conforming average at 7.237% on Oct. 26 and the 30-year FHA average at 6.682%. Your quote depends on credit, down payment, loan type, and points, so get a Loan Estimate from a lender.
Should I wait for the Fed before buying a house in Marion County?
Waiting for one meeting rarely changes much, since a pause this week is widely expected. The more useful question is whether the monthly payment works for you today and whether the home fits your plans. A lender can show how a rate lock or float choice affects you.
Is now a good time to sell my Ocala home?
It depends on your timeline and pricing. NAR's September data showed national inventory up 4.6% from a year earlier and a 4.8-month supply, which gives buyers more choice. Sellers who price to current conditions and plan for buyer requests for credits tend to be better positioned.
Sources
- Raisin: October 2026 Fed meeting preview (updated Oct 23, 2026)
- Fortune: Mortgage rates today, Oct. 26, 2026 (Oct 26, 2026)
- NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September (Oct 2026)
This article is general information, not legal, tax, insurance, or lending advice, and no guarantee of any rate, Fed decision, cost, or value. Rates change daily and vary by borrower. Talk with a licensed lender, a CPA, an insurance agent, or a real estate attorney about your situation.
Cristian Gonzalez, REALTOR, eXp Realty
FL License #3633800 · Ocala, Marion County, Florida · Published October 26, 2026